Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) — A new systematic approach for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty

doi:10.1016/j.cjche.2024.12.021

Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 81 ›› Issue (5): 255-269.DOI: 10.1016/j.cjche.2024.12.021

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Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) — A new systematic approach for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty

Qianlin Wang¹, Jiaqi Han¹, Lei Cheng², Feng Wang¹, Yiming Chen³, Zhan Dou¹, Bing Zhang¹, Feng Chen⁴, Guoan Yang¹

1. College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China;
2. PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300450, China;
3. Pittsburgh Institute, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610207, China;
4. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

Received:2024-10-11 Revised:2024-12-18 Accepted:2024-12-19 Online:2025-03-11 Published:2025-05-28
Contact: Feng Chen,E-mail:chenfeng@cup.edu.cn;Guoan Yang,E-mail:yangga@buct.edu.cn
Supported by:
This paper is supported by the National Key Research & Development Program of China (2021YFB3301100), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52004014), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (ZY2406).

Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) — A new systematic approach for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty

Qianlin Wang¹, Jiaqi Han¹, Lei Cheng², Feng Wang¹, Yiming Chen³, Zhan Dou¹, Bing Zhang¹, Feng Chen⁴, Guoan Yang¹

1. College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China;
2. PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300450, China;
3. Pittsburgh Institute, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610207, China;
4. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

通讯作者: Feng Chen,E-mail:chenfeng@cup.edu.cn;Guoan Yang,E-mail:yangga@buct.edu.cn
基金资助:
This paper is supported by the National Key Research & Development Program of China (2021YFB3301100), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52004014), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (ZY2406).

Abstract

Abstract: This paper proposed a new systematic approach – functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level (FAL) and reliability distribution (RD), revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.

Key words: Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM), Accident causation analysis, Operational accidents, Hazardous chemical, Uncertainty

摘要： This paper proposed a new systematic approach – functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level (FAL) and reliability distribution (RD), revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.

关键词: Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM), Accident causation analysis, Operational accidents, Hazardous chemical, Uncertainty

Qianlin Wang, Jiaqi Han, Lei Cheng, Feng Wang, Yiming Chen, Zhan Dou, Bing Zhang, Feng Chen, Guoan Yang. Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) — A new systematic approach for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty[J]. Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering, 2025, 81(5): 255-269.

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Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) — A new systematic approach for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty

Functional evidential reasoning model (FERM) — A new systematic approach for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty

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