Abstract: Refined risk prediction must be achieved to guarantee the safe and steady operation of chemical production processes. However, there is high nonlinearity and association coupling among massive, complicated multisource process data, resulting in a low accuracy of existing prediction technology. For that reason, a real-time risk prediction method for chemical processes based on the attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory (Attention-based Bi-LSTM) is proposed in this study. First, multisource process data, such as temperature, pressure, flow rate, and liquid level, are preprocessed for denoising. Data correlation is analyzed in time windows by setting time windows and moving step lengths to explore correlations, thus establishing a complex network model oriented to the chemical production process. Second, network structure entropy is introduced to reduce the dimensions of the multisource process data. Moreover, a 1D relative risk sequence is acquired by max-min deviation standardization to judge whether the chemical process is in a steady state. Finally, an Attention-based Bi-LSTM algorithm is established by integrating the attention mechanism and the Bi-LSTM network to fit and train 1D relative risk sequences. In that way, the proposed algorithm achieves real-time prediction and intelligent perception of risk states during chemical production. A case study based on the Tennessee Eastman process (TEP) is conducted. The validity and reasonability of the proposed method are verified by analyzing distribution laws of relative risks under normal and fault conditions. Also, the proposed algorithm importantly improves the prediction accuracy of chemical process risks relative to that of existing prediction technologies.

Key words: Chemical processes, Prediction, Neural networks, Network structure entropy, Relative risk sequence

摘要： Refined risk prediction must be achieved to guarantee the safe and steady operation of chemical production processes. However, there is high nonlinearity and association coupling among massive, complicated multisource process data, resulting in a low accuracy of existing prediction technology. For that reason, a real-time risk prediction method for chemical processes based on the attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory (Attention-based Bi-LSTM) is proposed in this study. First, multisource process data, such as temperature, pressure, flow rate, and liquid level, are preprocessed for denoising. Data correlation is analyzed in time windows by setting time windows and moving step lengths to explore correlations, thus establishing a complex network model oriented to the chemical production process. Second, network structure entropy is introduced to reduce the dimensions of the multisource process data. Moreover, a 1D relative risk sequence is acquired by max-min deviation standardization to judge whether the chemical process is in a steady state. Finally, an Attention-based Bi-LSTM algorithm is established by integrating the attention mechanism and the Bi-LSTM network to fit and train 1D relative risk sequences. In that way, the proposed algorithm achieves real-time prediction and intelligent perception of risk states during chemical production. A case study based on the Tennessee Eastman process (TEP) is conducted. The validity and reasonability of the proposed method are verified by analyzing distribution laws of relative risks under normal and fault conditions. Also, the proposed algorithm importantly improves the prediction accuracy of chemical process risks relative to that of existing prediction technologies.

关键词: Chemical processes, Prediction, Neural networks, Network structure entropy, Relative risk sequence