关键词: Biomass, Pyrolysis, Optimal design, Ensemble learning, Economic analysis

Abstract: The biomass and coal co-pyrolysis (BCP) technology combines the advantages of both resources, achieving efficient resource complementarity, reducing reliance on coal, and minimizing pollutant emissions. However, this process still encounters numerous challenges in attaining optimal economic and environmental performance. Therefore, an ensemble learning (EL) framework is proposed for the BCP process in this study to optimize the synergistic benefits while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Six different ensemble learning models are developed to investigate the impact of input features, such as biomass characteristics, coal characteristics, and pyrolysis conditions on the product profit and CO₂ emissions of the BCP processes. The Optuna method is further employed to automatically optimize the hyperparameters of BCP process models for enhancing their predictive accuracy and robustness. The results indicate that the categorical boosting (CAB) model of the BCP process has demonstrated exceptional performance in accurately predicting its product profit and CO₂ emission (R²>0.92) after undergoing five-fold cross-validation. To enhance the interpretability of this preferred model, the Shapley additive explanations and partial dependence plot analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact and importance of biomass characteristics, coal characteristics, and pyrolysis conditions on the product profitability and CO₂ emissions of the BCP processes. Finally, the preferred model coupled with a reference vector guided evolutionary algorithm is carried to identify the optimal conditions for maximizing the product profit of BCP process products while minimizing CO₂ emissions. It indicates the optimal BCP process can achieve high product profits (5290.85 CNY·t^-1) and low CO₂ emissions (7.45 kg·t^-1).

Key words: Biomass, Pyrolysis, Optimal design, Ensemble learning, Economic analysis